Zonal Security Technique for Use in Strategic and Tactical Response Planning

This paper describes a statistical technique for the determination of the penetration probability of each physical point in the protected facility as a function of time. Knowledge of the actual route or destination of the intruding force is not required. The technique is based on a "state vector" description of the facility in conjunction with a transition matrix. The time evolution is determined by utilization of the "Markov" assumption for the system. While the basic solution utilizes a time independent transition matrix a means of extending the method to a time dependent transition matrix case is described. An example is provided to show how the technique may be utilized in determining a "zonal" security map of the system for use in tactical response planning. Use of the results for strategic planning and for "weak point" determination in the system design is also presented.