Two-Area Probabilistic Production Costing by the Method of Bi-Variant Cumulants

Probabilistic techniques for estimating the production cost of electric generation are developed for two areas using bi-variant cumulants and bi- variant Gram-Charlier Series A approximations. Area energy supply by generation class is determined from the differetice in expected unserved energy before and after each class is introduced. Transmission import limits and whole or partial foreign ownership of generation are modeled. A simplifying method for computing bi-variant cumulants of a generation class from uni- variant cumulants -of an individual generator is described. Sample studies show favorable accuracy and efficiency results.