Probabilistic Short-Circuit Analysis by Monte Carlo Simulations

The probability distribution of fault currents associated with a certain region of interest in a power network represents basic information needed in various planning, reliability assessment and risk studies. Probabilistic fault analysis by Monte Carlo simulations is simple to implement and it provides reliable results. It is, however, characterized by some analytical and computational difficulties due to the increased problem size and the random variations of system and fault data which are assigned and processed internally in the programming algorithm. This paper summarizes the main aspects and the results of a relevant study, performed recently at Ontario Hydro, and presents some analytical developments which have led to overcoming computational difficulties and to successful programming implementation.