A Probabilistic Approach to Power System Stability Analysis

Power system stability analysis is usually performed in a deterministic framework in which the time domain response of the power system is studied for certain specific disturbances to determine the adequacy of the system. However, the occurrence of disturbances and their attendant protective switching sequences are random processes and it would be more meaningful to determine the probability of stability for a power system. An approach for such a determination is presented in this paper. The probability of steady state stability is relatively easier to determine because of the linearization of the system equations. The probability of transient stability, on the other hand, is much more difficult to obtain analytically because of the nonlinear transformations required. However, a Monte Carlo simulation method to determine transient stability probability is shown to be feasible.