A concise method for calculating expected unserved energy in generating system reliability analysis

A simple and efficient technique is proposed for the calculation of expected unserved energy (EUE) in generating systems. The technique is new in that it uses a mean capacity outage table, which eliminates the need for construction of a negative margin table. This concept allows both LOLE (loss of load expectation) and EUE to be calculated with little more computational effort than is needed to calculate LOLE alone. The proposed method allows for efficient inclusion of intermittent energy sources and of unit planned outages. The method is applied to the IEEE reliability test system and an EPRI reduced synthetic system