Title :
Planning for New Electric Generation Technologies A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Approach
Author :
DapkLus, William D. ; Bowe, Thomas R.
Author_Institution :
Decision Systems Associates
fDate :
6/1/1984 12:00:00 AM
Abstract :
An expansion planning method is developed which considers the complex, uncertain and dynamic nature of the electric utility decision environment. A stochastic dynamic programming model is formkilated and applied in case studies. Uncertainty in demarid, the commercialization date of new technologies, and the possible loss of service of existing nuclear capacity is considered. Uncertainty affects the current expansion decision. Because of these uncertainties, no single expansion plan is optimal. Contingency plans are established which consider how uncertainty is resolved over time. The conditions which must exist for the new technology to be chosen are identified.
Keywords :
Cities and towns; Commercialization; Dynamic programming; Environmental economics; Power generation economics; Power industry; Stochastic processes; Stochastic systems; Technology planning; Uncertainty;
Journal_Title :
Power Apparatus and Systems, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TPAS.1984.318482