The Segmentation Method Applied to the Evaluation of Loss of Load Probability of Two Interconnected Systems

The segmentation method applied to the evaluation of loss of load probability (LOLP) of two interconnected power systems with independent as well as correlated loads is described in this paper. The method obtains the probability density function (PDF) of load by sampling the daily load for a given period and assigning to each sample equal probability, The resulting PDF is expressed in terms of capacity segments. Convolution of generating units and load is achieved by suitably shifting and adding the probability values of the capacity segments. The proposed method is computationally more efficient and as accurate than existing techniques based on the commonly used recursive algorithm. The method is applied to two interconnected systems and the results are compared to those obtained using a recursive algorithm. utilizing cumulative probabilities, block-wise addition and truncation of probabilities.