Probabilistic Production Costing with Load-Shifting Resources Using Discrete Approximations

Load-shifting resources reduce electric utility operating costs by shifting the time at which the rest of the generation resources supply the energy demanded by customers. The economic dispatch of load- shifting resources is contingent on resource availability. Many widely used utility decision-making aids rely on production simulation metbods that ignore or incorrectly incorporate the effects of resource availability ability on the contingent decisions to operate load- shifting resources. The resulting production cost estimates can seriously misrepresent the potential value of load-shifting resources and thereby mislead decision makers.