On The Application Of Esscher´s Approximation To Computation Of Generation System Reliability And Production Costing Indexes

This paper studies the performance of Esscher´s larce deviation approximation scheme for the calculation of the LOLP index and the unit capacity factors in a production costing context. This approximation is found to be accurate and speedy for the purpose of LOLP corputations. The proposed large deviation algorithm also represents a viable computational procedure for determining production costing functions. It appears to be very accurate for the purpose of estimating the capacity factors of peaking units.