Residential Load Shape Modelling Based on Customer Behavior

A model of residential electric load is developed. It includes psychological factors which affect individual use of the various electrical appliances. Specifically, the concepts of an "availability" function which statistically estimates the number of people in a household available to use an appliance, and a "proclivity" function which gives the probability that an individual will use that appliance at any given time of day are developed. These functions are then used to drive "physical" models of the various appliances and these are incorporated into a "combined" model which is used to estimate load on a time of day basis. Results of a computer simulation of the model are compared to actual load test data.