Probabilistic Model of a Two-Site Wind Energy Conversion System

A general probabilistic model of a two-site wind-energy conversion system (WECS) is described. The wind speeds at the two sites are not assumed independent, thus preventing the convolution theorem from being directly applicable. Instead, a model based on the conditional probability theorem and mutually exclusive events is presented. The model allows the assessment of the energy resource available to supply a given load represented by its load duration curve, taking into consideration wind-turbine failure modes and the intermittent nature of the wind resource. The model is based on a capacity-probability table constructed using fundamental probability theorems on conditional and mutually exclusive events. The table is then combined with a load model in order to assess its performance and determine the expected energy not supplied (EENS) of the system. A planning study is then reported on a realistic system to illustrate how the most efficient wind turbines can be selected to support an existing thermal system using a procedure based on a minimization of the incremental marginal cost of operation.