Estimating Transmission-Line Lightning Outages by Stochastic Calculation

This paper presents a stochastic calculation method for estimating transmission-line lightning outages. With this method, outage rates can be obtained more efficiently than with the conventional Monte Carlo method, and the distribution of the yearly variation of the number of outages is estimated by a method newly developed by the author. The results are compared with the observed outage rates of actual transmission lines and with the Monte Carlo calculation values of a model line, and the reliability and the efficiency of the new method are confirmed.