A probabilistic mechanism for small disturbance instabilities in electric power systems

Unstable, oscillatory behavior has been observed on several occasions in electrical power systems operated in an unfaulted, normal state under moderate load. In some cases system failure has resulted from this behavior. In this paper, we report on some recent results in the mathematics of stochastic processes which suggest a mechanism leading to small disturbance instabilities of this type in power systems. Unstable oscillations in power angles may be produced in a system consisting of a synchronous machine with negligible damping weakly coupled through randomly fluctuating links to other machines each with positive damping. The assumptions necessary to structure the model to produce this behavior are simple, flexible and consistent with possible operating conditions in an electrical power system.