Predictive assessment of bulk-system-reliability performance indices

The past reliability performance of a bulk electricity system can be quantified using a wide range of indices. There is also a wide range of available techniques for predicting the future performance of a bulk system. There appears, however, to have been relatively little attention given to attempting to predict indices in the same form as those actually measured. The paper examines the general concepts associated with past-performance and predictive-assessment indices and illustrates by application to two systems how this linkage can be established