DocumentCode :
1198453
Title :
Reliability Sampling Methodology Using Simulation and Re-Sampling
Author :
Nierwinski, John, Jr.
Author_Institution :
U.S. Army Materiel Syst. Anal. Activity, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD
Volume :
56
Issue :
1
fYear :
2007
fDate :
3/1/2007 12:00:00 AM
Firstpage :
125
Lastpage :
131
Abstract :
This paper develops and validates a reliability sampling methodology using simulation, and re-sampling; and which incorporates unit-to-unit variation in the determination of significant sample sizes for analytically intractable reliability cases. This sample size determination is very important because the reliability of the sampled vehicles should represent the reliability of the entire fleet. Smaller-than-required sample sizes may lead to an incorrect representation of the reliability of the fleet, which may mislead the Army to make poor decisions, such as deploying a fleet that may not be reliable. These type II errors can be minimized by incorporating a more realistic sampling methodology, as developed in this research. Prior to using this methodology, analytical formulas were used to compute reliability sample sizes with unit-to-unit variation assumed to be constant. This new methodology confirms the analytically derived solutions for fixed usage & true failure rate, as well as for fixed usage & varying vehicle true failure rate. Existing reliability data shows that unit-to-unit variation does exist. Vehicle variation in true failure rate is modeled with a Gamma prior distribution. Recent reliability data are used to validate the hypothesis that this is an adequate tool for reliability sampling when unit-to-unit variation exists. Results of this validation accept the hypothesis, validating that the methodology is an adequate tool. The Army is currently using this methodology for fleet assessment
Keywords :
failure analysis; military vehicles; reliability; sampling methods; analytical formula; failure rate; fleet assessment; fleet reliability; gamma prior distribution; reliability sampling methodology; sample size determination; sampled vehicles; simulation; unit-to-unit variation; vehicles; Analytical models; Failure analysis; Land vehicles; Maximum likelihood estimation; Military computing; Probability distribution; Random variables; Road vehicles; Sampling methods; Shape; Gamma prior distribution; re-sampling; reliability sampling; simulation; unit-to-unit variation;
fLanguage :
English
Journal_Title :
Reliability, IEEE Transactions on
Publisher :
ieee
ISSN :
0018-9529
Type :
jour
DOI :
10.1109/TR.2006.884598
Filename :
4118439
Link To Document :
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