Title :
Prediction on Diesel Price in China with an Exponential Smoothing Method
Author :
Yang Ding ; Quan Wen ; Bo Shen
Author_Institution :
Shaanxi Open Univ., Xi´an, China
Abstract :
This paper starts from the changes of diesel price in China, and then makes the seasonal adjustment and trend decomposition based on the diesel prices time series data from December 2009 to January 2013 to predict the price of diesel by an exponential smoothing method. The results show that the diesel price (10 #) in China still has the rising trend and the predicted diesel (10 #) prices will reach a maximum of 10,161.84 Yuan/ton in May 2014 according to a multiplicative model. The accurately predicted diesel prices can serve to the strategy development in the related industries.
Keywords :
petroleum; pricing; time series; China; diesel price prediction; diesel price time series data; exponential smoothing method; multiplicative model; seasonal adjustment; trend decomposition; Economics; Fluctuations; Market research; Petroleum; Predictive models; Smoothing methods; Time series analysis;
Conference_Titel :
Computational Sciences and Optimization (CSO), 2014 Seventh International Joint Conference on
Conference_Location :
Beijing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4799-5371-4
DOI :
10.1109/CSO.2014.150
