Assessing technological forecasts for the fiber optic communications market

It is noted that a key issue in engineering management is how technological forecasting affects marketing and planning decisions. Because published market forecasts influence both supplier and customer decision making, there is a need to understand the factors influencing these forecasts. Completing the management cycle requires analysis of the results and recommendations to change the original plan. In this case, a post-audit of the forecasts was made to determine past performance. Recommendations were made to standardize the terminology so that future market forecasts could be better understood, analyzed, and post-audited. A comprehensive literature search of publicly available forecasts for the United States fiber optic communications market was made. The research indicated that two major trends within the fiber optic communications industry are expected to develop. The two major trends are continued growth and the shift of emphasis from long-haul to short-haul systems. It is concluded that growth will be driven by cost effectiveness