Development of a nodal effective load model considering transmission system element unavailabilities

The paper illustrates an extended effective load model including the capacities and uncertainties of generators and transmission lines. The conventional effective load model only considers the uncertainties of generators. An extended ELDC (effective load duration curve) based on the effective load model is proposed in the paper. The proposed nodal ELDC is able to supply information on nodal indices for probabilistic production cost simulation and reliability evaluation at the load points in a power system. It is expected that the effective load model presented in the paper will prove useful in many problems dealing with nodal and decentralised operation and control of electric power systems in the competitive electricity market environment. The proposed ELDC will extend the application areas of nodal probabilistic production cost simulation, outage cost assessment and reliability evaluation etc. at load points. The characteristics and effectiveness of this new effective load model are illustrated using case studies of test systems