Zonal Security Technique for Use in Strategic and Tactical Response Planning

This work describes a statistical technique for the determination of the penetration probability of each physical point in a protected facility as a function of time. The technique is based on a state vector description of the facility in conjunction with a transition matrix containing the transition rates between the various states. The state vector denotes the probability density that the intruders are in state i at time t. The time evolution of this quantity is determined by utilization of a Markov assumption for the system. While the basic solution utilizes a time independent transition matrix, a means for extending the method to a time dependent transition matrix is described.