Planning for New Electric Generation Technologies A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Approach

An expansion planning method is developed which considers the complex, uncertain and dynamic nature of the electric utility decision environment. A stochastic dynamic programming model is formulated and applied in case studies. Uncertainty in demand, the commercialization date of new technologies, and the possible loss of service of existing nuclear capacity is considered. Uncertainty affects the current expansion decision. Because of these uncertainties, no single expansion plan is optimal. Contingency plans are established which consider how uncertainty is resolved over time. The conditions which must exist for the new technology to be chosen are identified.