The analytical Monte Carlo method for approximating the distribution of a plant´s electrical generation

A method for approximating the distribution of a plant´s generation (and, therefore, of its fuel burn) as a function of both uncertainty in load forecasts and the plant´s performance. The method is applicable to all-thermal systems. The moments of the distribution of the plant´s generation are estimated by combining the statistical method of the generation of system moments with probabilistic production costing in a way that analytically models a Monte Carlo process. The resulting algorithm, referred to as the analytical Monte Carlo method, is evaluated by comparing its estimates of the moments of each plant´s generation with that obtained using a Monte Carlo model. Results indicate that the method yields practical estimates for evaluating uncertainty that can be used in long-term studies