Predicting the Commercialization Progress of Early-Stage Technologies: An Ex-Ante Analysis

Predicting commercialization progress (CP) for early-stage technologies is critical for funding agencies and private equity investors. This study employed an ex-ante analysis of expert assessments on the future potential of early-stage technologies by a U.S. Department of Defense funded Technology transfer agency. We examined expert assessments of 271 technologies that were considered for funding. We then evaluated subsequent CP of these technologies. Our results indicated that evaluations of technical merit were significantly and positively related to obtaining follow-on grants, license agreements, and partnership alliances, while evaluation of commercial potential was related to obtaining subsequent private equity investment. Evaluation of management team expertise was positively related to future revenue generation, but negatively related to future equity investment, partnership alliances, and license agreements. Meeting established milestones was also related to future commercial success.