Prediction of electric vehicle ownership based on Gompertz model

This paper introduces the common prediction methods of vehicle ownership, and makes a compare of the Gompertz model with Logistic model. As a result, a prediction model based on the Gompertz model is proposed to predict the electric vehicle ownership of China. Then, the calculation of the model´s parameters is given. Finally, we predict the electric vehicle ownership with the civilian car ownership data of China. According to the prediction results, China´s electric vehicle ownership will reach the inflection point around 2035, and tend to be saturated gradually.