Loss of load probability evaluation based on real-time emergency dispatch

The loss of load probability (LOLP) represents an important index in the reliability evaluation of electric power systems. The LOLP denotes the probability of customer demand curtailments due to random outages of various system components. A combined optimization/reliability technique is presented in which the system control parameters are optimized. This simulates practical contingency situations where suitable controls are invoked in order to preserve, as much as possible, the continuity of supply. A DC representation of the power network is used and the optimization problem is solved by linear programming. The active component of the net injected power and the voltage angles at all buses represent the optimization variables of the problem. The optimal solution maximizes the load power supplied subject to the power flow equations as well as upper and lower bounds on the optimization variables. A description of the computerized algorithm developed and numerical results for a test power system are also included.