Title :
Weakly Universally Consistent Forecasting of Stationary and Ergodic Time Series
Author :
Jones, Daniel ; Kohler, Michael ; Walk, Harro
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Math., Tech. Univ. Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
Abstract :
Static forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series is considered, i.e., inference of the conditional expectation of the response variable at time zero given the infinite past. It is shown that the mean squared error of a combination of suitably defined localized least squares estimates converges to zero for all distributions where the response variable is square integrable.
Keywords :
mean square error methods; statistical mechanics; time series; conditional expectation; ergodic time series; localized least square; mean squared error; response variable; static forecasting; stationary time series; weakly universally consistent forecasting; Forecasting; Kernel; Least squares approximation; Polynomials; Random variables; Splines (mathematics); Time series analysis; Dependent data; forecasting; mean squared error; time series; weak consistency;
Journal_Title :
Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TIT.2011.2169648