Probabilistic approach to describe greenhouse gas emissions and their impact in the operation of insular power systems

Environmental problems related to the conventional generators have motivated governmental policies all over the world in order to incorporate alternative power sources to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fossil-fuel consumption. On the one hand, wind power generation can increase GHG emissions of the others conventional generators connected to the system. On the other hand, wind energy is characterized by its variability that imposes challenges in the operation of the power system. In order to integrate GHG emissions estimation and the uncertainty related to the wind power generation, a probabilistic point of view is presented in this paper to estimate the probability distribution function (PDF) of the GHG emissions of a typical insular power system. The PDF of power production of each conventional generator is calculated, and then the expected value of the total GHG emissions is estimated.