Solar commercial virtual power plant day ahead trading

During the past years, a large amount of photovoltaic (PV) capacity has been installed in Belgium. The main driver for this was the abundant government support (Green Power Certificates). However, during the last few years, the support for new installations has been withdrawn and new PV capacity ceased. In previous research, it has been proven that selling PV energy of existing plants directly on the wholesale market is not feasible due to the large share of green power certificates awarded to these plants. However, the price of green power certificates has dropped significantly and hence the balance between certificate and commodity revenue is restored. This paper investigates the risks and challenges of leaving the fixed rate system and trade directly on the more volatile day ahead markets while facing penalties resulting from wrong forecasts. It will be proven that nominating to much or not enough energy can be positive, but also yield large risks.