Probability model for cumulative solar proton event fluences

Author

Xapsos, M.A. ; Summers, G.P. ; Barth, J.L. ; Stassinopoulos, E.G. ; Burke, E.A.

Author_Institution

Naval Res. Lab., Washington, DC, USA

Volume

47

Issue

3

fYear

2000

fDate

6/1/2000 12:00:00 AM

Firstpage

486

Lastpage

490

Abstract

A new model of cumulative solar proton event fluences is presented. It allows the expected total fluence to be calculated for a given confidence level and for time periods corresponding to space missions. The new model is in reasonable agreement with the JPL91 model over their common proton energy range of >1 to >60 MeV. The current model extends this energy range to >300 MeV. It also incorporates more recent data which tends to make predicted fluences slightly higher than JPL91. For the first time, an analytic solution is obtained for this problem of accumulated fluence over a mission. Several techniques are used, including Maximum Entropy, to show the solution is well represented as a lognormal probability distribution of the total fluence. The advantages are that it is relatively easy to work with and. To update as more solar proton event data become available

Keywords

cosmic ray interactions; log normal distribution; maximum entropy methods; proton effects; solar cosmic ray particles; space vehicle electronics; 1 to 300 MeV; JPL91 model; cumulative solar proton event fluence; lognormal probability distribution; maximum entropy technique; space mission; Degradation; Entropy; Extraterrestrial measurements; Laboratories; NASA; Predictive models; Probability distribution; Protons; Space missions; Space vehicles;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Nuclear Science, IEEE Transactions on

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0018-9499

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/23.856469

Filename

856469