Cross Validation for Selection of Cortical Interaction Models From Scalp EEG or MEG

A cross-validation (CV) method based on state-space framework is introduced for comparing the fidelity of different cortical interaction models to the measured scalp electroencephalogram (EEG) or magnetoencephalography (MEG) data being modeled. A state equation models the cortical interaction dynamics and an observation equation represents the scalp measurement of cortical activity and noise. The measured data are partitioned into training and test sets. The training set is used to estimate model parameters and the model quality is evaluated by computing test data innovations for the estimated model. Two CV metrics normalized mean square error and log-likelihood are estimated by averaging over different training/test partitions of the data. The effectiveness of this method of model selection is illustrated by comparing two linear modeling methods and two nonlinear modeling methods on simulated EEG data derived using both known dynamic systems and measured electrocorticography data from an epilepsy patient.