The forecasting model of 4G LTE implementation in Indonesia

Forecasting is an important step before the market deployment of upcoming 4G mobile technologies, i.e. LTE release 8 and release 10. A forecasting model working on the basis of Gompertz curve has been developed. Scenarios of rapid, moderate, and slow growth has been simulated by taking the case of Indonesia, in which the LTE frequency bands were assumed to be 1800 MHz and 2300 MHz. The number of LTE transceiver sites development depends on the MIMO configuration of the chosen LTE technical specifications. It is found that moderate growth scenario has the stable and controllable growth with its rate below 10%. This scenario should be enforced with LTE commonality for regions throughout the country. This scenario could be viewed as the most reasonable way to implement LTE in Indonesia.