DocumentCode :
1385687
Title :
Dealing with (deep) uncertainties: focus on the strategy, not the forecast
Author :
Thissen, W.A.H.
Volume :
40
Issue :
4
fYear :
2012
Firstpage :
7
Lastpage :
8
Abstract :
Prediction is very difficult, particularly if it is about the future¿. This quote, attributed to Nils Bohr, holds for all forecasts and expectations on which many strategic decisions are based. While a significant body of quantitative methods knowledge has been developed for dealing with those future uncertainties that can be described adequately in probabilistic terms, relatively little attention has been paid so far to systematic approaches for dealing with so-called deep uncertainties.
Keywords :
Analytical models; Probabilistic logic; Probability distribution; Uncertainty;
fLanguage :
English
Journal_Title :
Engineering Management Review, IEEE
Publisher :
ieee
ISSN :
0360-8581
Type :
jour
DOI :
10.1109/EMR.2012.6379394
Filename :
6379394
Link To Document :
بازگشت