A multi-attribute decision support framework for conventional generation capacity expansion

In order to be mindful of the overarching theme of reducing global dependency on oil for energy production, careful execution of current thermal and gas fired conventional capacity must be taken into consideration. Given the high energy demand profiles experienced in some developing countries, heavy investments in renewable and alternative generation may not be enough to suffice this ever growing demand. This is especially the case when dealing with high seasonality demand. This paper develops a modeling framework by which policy makers can examine a wide range of possible solutions to this problem through a multi-attribute scenario analysis approach developed. Through rapid prototyping of multiple curated what if scenarios, energy planners can analyze a wide range of complimentary conventional capacity portfolios that work hand in hand with the existing renewable and alternative efforts to achieve an overall desired energy outlook. The framework was developed and applied with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as a case study. The scenarios analyzed herein span various demand growths, nuclear and renewable deployment plans, as well as various conventional capacity expansion options. Finally a selected set of scenarios are evaluated across multiple trade-off spaces and discussed.