Short-term reliability of power-system generation

New mathematical models for calculation of time-dependent state probabilities required for evaluation of a shortterm level of reliability to meet a forecasted load demand, under forced outage of generating units, are presented. The calculation of the time-dependent state probabilities of normally operating and standby generators is based on the conventional assumption that the time of units spent in the fully available state is exponentially distributed. Since the time of generator units spent in outage condition is arbitrarily distributed, special methods have been developed that are relatively less complex than the present techniques, more accurate than the conventional assumption of exponential distribution and computationally efficient for practical commercial application