Probabilistic power-flow techniques extended and applied to operational decision making

For effective control and operational decision making related to any power system, techniques are required to evaluate system insecurity risks. One such technique is to establish probabilistic load flows in the power system. The paper describes methods for extending the previously published probability and convolution techniques to powerflow studies in which the consumer demands are not totally independent (i.e. there exists some linear dependence between demands). The methods by which this can be achieved for appropriate probability density functions are described. An analysis of a power system, assuming in turn that demands are totally independent (uncorrelated), totally correlated, and partially correlated, is included and discussed, and the results for each formulation are compared. The potential use of this evaluation for risk analysis is discussed.