The Carbon Market Incremental Payoff in Renewable Electricity Generation Projects in Brazil: A Real Options Approach

The objective of this work is to present a methodology capable of estimating the incremental payoff of the carbon market for grid-connected renewable power generation projects in Brazil. The proposed methodology consists of using the NEWAVE model to determine the optimal operating policy for the Brazilian Interconnected System over the medium-term, and to establish hydrological dispatch scenarios for the power plants connected to this system. Based on these results, the criteria defined in the methodology ACM0002 were used to estimate the baseline of the projects developed in response to the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol. Having estimated the baseline for the project, the incremental payoff obtained from the sale of Certified Emission Reductions is estimated using the real options theory. Subsequently, the value of the option is added to the conventional cash flow of the project, determining the impact of the carbon market on its internal rate of return.