Risk due to load forecast uncertainty in short term power system planning

This paper presents a methodology to analyze the risk of short term power system operational planning in the presence of electrical load forecast uncertainty. As the authors´ methodology requires an estimate of the load forecast variance, a Bayesian load forecaster is used in the practical implementation. They express their results as a function of forecast lead time from one to five days into the future, in terms of $/MWH. The risk due to load forecast uncertainty is based on the forecast variance, and found by determining the expected cost of perfect information. They illustrate their risk evaluation method in a case study with utility-derived power system data and temperature forecast data from the US National Weather Service