Title :
The impacts of temperature forecast uncertainty on Bayesian load forecasting
Author :
Douglas, Andrew P. ; Breipohl, Arthur M. ; Lee, Fred N. ; Adapa, Rambabu
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Electr. Eng. & Comput. Sci., Oklahoma Univ., Norman, OK, USA
fDate :
11/1/1998 12:00:00 AM
Abstract :
This paper presents a short-term load forecast methodology that is suitable for power system operational planning studies. Bayesian estimation is use to predict multiple step ahead peak forecasts using peak and average temperature forecasts as explanatory variables. Herein, the forecast model is developed and illustrated in a case study with utility-derived power system data. Special attention is given to the practical issue of forecasting the electrical load with imperfect weather information
Keywords :
Bayes methods; load forecasting; power system planning; Bayesian estimation; case study; imperfect weather information; multiple step ahead peak forecasts; power system operational planning; short-term load forecast methodology; temperature forecast uncertainty; Bayesian methods; Economic forecasting; Load forecasting; Power system modeling; Power system planning; Predictive models; Process planning; Temperature; Uncertainty; Weather forecasting;
Journal_Title :
Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on
