A real-time trajectory prediction scheme based on the WAMS information for a multi-machine system

Due to the development of the Wide Area Measurement System (WAMS), it has been possible to obtain the real-time information of the power system. But in some research fields such as transient stability analysis and emergency control, the real-time information is not enough. Thus study on trajectory prediction is necessary and important. In this paper, a trajectory real-time prediction scheme based on the WAMS information is proposed for the multi-machine system. We firstly analyse the features of angle, angular velocity and unbalance power trajectory in a Single Machine Infinite Bus (SMIB) system. Based on the analysis, we choose different prediction methods for different state variables. Then we transform the multi-machine system into an equivalent SMIB system. By clustering and equivalence, we obtain the trajectory of equivalent system. And we propose the real-time trajectory prediction scheme based on above analysis. Finally we test the real-time prediction scheme on the IEEE standard system. The results show the accuracy and stability of the prediction scheme proposed in this paper.