Climate Change Impacts on Residential and Commercial Loads in the Western U.S. Grid

This paper presents a multidisciplinary modeling approach to quickly quantify climate change impacts on energy consumption, peak load, and load composition of residential and commercial buildings. This research focuses on addressing the impact of temperature changes on the building cooling load in ten major cities across the Western United States and Canada. Our results have shown that by the mid-century, building yearly energy consumption and peak load will increase in the Southwest. Moreover, the peak load months will spread out to not only the summer months but also spring and autumn months. The Pacific Northwest will experience more hot days in the summer months. The penetration levels of air-conditioning (a/c) systems in this region are likely to increase significantly over the years. As a result, some locations in the Pacific Northwest may be shifted from winter peaking to summer peaking. Overall, the Western U.S. grid may see more simultaneous peaks across the North and South in summer months. Increased cooling load will result in a significant increase in the motor load, which consumes more reactive power and requires stronger voltage support from the grid. This study suggests an increasing need for the industry to implement new technology to increase the efficiency of temperature-sensitive loads and apply proper protection and control to prevent possible adverse impacts of a/c motor loads.