Long-term forecasting of household and residential electric customers in Brazil

Author

Pessanha, J.F.M. ; Leon, N.

Author_Institution

Centro de Pesquisas de Energia Eletr. Eletrobras Cepel, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Volume

10

Issue

2

fYear

2012

fDate

3/1/2012 12:00:00 AM

Firstpage

1537

Lastpage

1543

Abstract

The long-term electric power demand forecasting is based on a set of basic premises that includes the macroeconomic scenarios, the growth of the population and of the number of households. The latter is the main determinant to calculate the number of residential customers served by the utilities. This paper presents the headship rate method and its projections for the number of households in Brazil for the years 2010 and 2020. These projections are based on the long term forecasting of the age pyramid of the Brazilian population provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In order to forecast the number of residential customers in the next ten years, the projections for the number of households are combined with the goals established by the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) for universalization access to electricity.

Keywords

domestic appliances; electricity supply industry; load forecasting; macroeconomics; Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency; Brazilian population pyramid; headship rate method; household electric customer; long-term electric power demand forecasting; long-term forecasting; macroeconomic scenarios; residential electric customer; Demand forecasting; Demography; Electricity; Geography; Monitoring; Power systems; demand forecasting; demographics; long-term forecasting; power system planning; residential consumers units;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Latin America Transactions, IEEE (Revista IEEE America Latina)

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

1548-0992

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/TLA.2012.6187597

Filename

6187597