Thailand´s low carbon societies 2050: Policy analyses of peak CO2 scenario

Thailand is a fast growing economic country due to the increasing energy consumption, and it results in increasing CO₂ emissions. The objective of this study is to analyze the prospect of CO₂ reduction potential of Thai power sector under business as usual (BAU) and Low Carbon Peak CO₂ (LCP) scenario during 2005-2050 using AIM/Enduse model. Results show that natural gas plays an importance role in 2050 in the BAU, however, natural gas is eliminated from the electricity generation system in 2050 in the LCP scenario. Coal and lignite consumption tends to increase during the study period in the LCP scenario due to the penetration of CCS technology with advanced clean technology in 2020. The CO₂ emission in the BAU will be approximately 321 MtCO₂ in 2050. However, the CO₂ emission will be about 160 MtCO₂ in 2050 in the LCP scenario which can mitigate CO₂ emissions around 55% when compared to the BAU. Finally CO₂ abatement cost is also presented.