Title :
Roads or Radar: The Tradeoff Between Investments in Infrastructure and Forecasting When Facing Hurricane Risk
Author :
Kim, Seong Dae ; Bickel, J. Eric
Author_Institution :
Project Manage. Dept., Univ. of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK, USA
Abstract :
When faced with a significant risk, society must decide how much to invest in prediction and response. For example, in the face of hurricane risk how much should we invest in better forecasting versus increased evacuation speed? To address this need, we develop a Markov decision processes model to analyze the interaction between the emergency response system and the emergency forecasting system. The model shows the tradeoff between the two investments given a budget limit. In addition, the research indicates that the superiority of the investment changes sharply by the lead time.
Keywords :
Markov processes; decision theory; emergency services; forecasting theory; investment; risk management; storms; Markov decision processes model; emergency forecasting system; emergency response system; hurricane risk; investment; Costs; Demand forecasting; Economic forecasting; Hurricanes; Investments; Petroleum; Predictive models; Radar; Risk analysis; Societies; Emergency; Markov decision processes; forecast accuracy; hurricane evacuation; investment decision; response speed; risk analysis;
Journal_Title :
Systems Journal, IEEE
DOI :
10.1109/JSYST.2010.2050372
