Title :
Financial model calibration using consistency hints
Author :
Abu-Mostafa, Yaser S.
Author_Institution :
Learning Syst. Group, California Inst. of Technol., Pasadena, CA, USA
fDate :
7/1/2001 12:00:00 AM
Abstract :
We introduce a technique for forcing the calibration of a financial model to produce valid parameters. The technique is based on learning from hints. It converts simple curve fitting into genuine calibration, where broad conclusions can be inferred from parameter values. The technique augments the error function of curve fitting with consistency hint error functions based on the Kullback-Leibler distance. We introduce an efficient EM-type optimization algorithm tailored to this technique. We also introduce other consistency hints, and balance their weights using canonical errors. We calibrate the correlated multifactor Vasicek model of interest rates, and apply it successfully to Japanese Yen swaps market and US dollar yield market
Keywords :
curve fitting; error analysis; foreign exchange trading; learning by example; neural nets; optimisation; probability; EM algorithm; Japanese Yen; Kullback-Leibler distance; US dollar; Vasicek model; calibration; curve fitting; error function; financial model; interest rates; learning from hints; optimization; probability; Calibration; Curve fitting; Economic indicators; Entropy; Finance; Helium; Neural networks; Neuromorphics; Steady-state; Systems engineering and theory;
Journal_Title :
Neural Networks, IEEE Transactions on