Bayesian Hidden Markov Models for Performance-Based Regulation of Continuity of Electricity Supply

A fundamental aspect in the regulation of the continuity of electricity supply is the identification of faults that could be caused by an exceptional event and, therefore, that are outside the utility control and responsibility. Different methods have been proposed during the years: the interpretation of the observed faults as a signal of an underlying system naturally leads to the analysis of the problem by means of a hidden Markov model. These models, in fact, are widely used for introducing dependence in data and/or for modeling observed phenomena depending on hidden processes. The application of this method shows that the model is able to identify exceptional events; moreover, the study of the estimated model parameters gives rise to reality-linked considerations.