Effect of Short-Term Risk-Aversive Dispatch on a Complex System Model for Power Systems

In the analysis of time series of blackouts, a power law dependency of blackout size with respect to frequency has been observed. It has been hypothesized that this behavior is the result of the power system operating near critical points. Models have been created in order to analyze this type of behavior in power systems. In this paper the effect of conservative versus nonconservative generation dispatch is studied using one such model. Conservative dispatches are ones that are performed in order to minimize stress on the system and therefore attempt to minimize possible outages and blackouts. This dispatch is compared with a nonconservative dispatch that attempts to maximize the stress and therefore increase the immediate risk of outages and blackouts. It is found that the nonconservative dispatch although attempting to maximize the immediate risk reduces the frequency of blackouts of all sizes over the conservative dispatch in the long term.