Evaluating alternate paths in R&D project planning

R&D project planning comes down to assessment of risk. Those agencies which issue major R&D contracts, including the government, are asking searching questions about the subsequent management of such risks. The manager is constrained in his search for solutions by time and money, and the approaches available to him are often interdependent. The subjective probabilities needed for risk analysis are illustrated in a brief development of the probability theory requisite for summarizing their import.