Title :
Methodology for improving subjective R&D estimates
Author_Institution :
Univ. Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Abstract :
Subjective probability estimates underly many decision techniques and project evaluation methods used in R&D. Recent research efforts of others in the study of subjective probability have resulted in methodological developments that may have useful R&D context. It is suggested that such may improve personal probability assessments, and, under some circumstances, may be useful in evaluating the relative assessment performances of the different assessors.
Keywords :
research and development management; Analytical models; Estimation; Games; Investments; Personnel; Random variables; Uncertainty;
Journal_Title :
Engineering Management, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TEM.1970.6448531