Assessment of operation plan performance under uncertainty

A military air operations plan contains a number of sequential and/or parallel tasks. Given information about the battlefield situation (including a task status estimate) during the plan´s execution, it is necessary to assess the situation impact on the plan, especially whether the entire plan would be delayed. Plan performance assessment fuses the task status estimate into the status estimate of the entire plan. The plan performance assessment assists the air operations commander in deciding the need for plan modification to assure the air operations goal. The performance assessment of the plan must deal with uncertainty in the task status estimate. This paper presents a comparative study of two information fusion techniques that infer the entire plan´s status estimate from the task status estimate under uncertainty: a decomposition technique with low computational cost and a composition technique with high computational cost. The test results of these two techniques indicate their similar estimation accuracies. Due to its low computational cost, the decomposition technique is recommended. Guidelines for applying the decomposition technique to a large-scale complex task plan are also provided