Forecast on Hebei energy consumption based on system dynamics

Energy resource is a material basis to the economic development, also is an important indicator to examine the social security, energy consumption has become the core strategy to promote social and economic development. This paper using feedback mechanism in system dynamic theory, according Hebei energy consumption characteristics, deeply analyses the relationship between energy consumption, population and economic development, establishes a system dynamic model of Hebei energy consumption,and forecast its demand. Finally puting forward the improvement of energy consumption structure, optimize the industrial structure, to relieve the pressure of the traditional sources supply, and resolve the energy shortage.