An Integrated Assessment Model for Exploring Potential Impacts of Global Change Scenarios on the Canadian Agricultural System

An integrated assessment model is being developed and tested to explore possible future trends of Canadian agriculture in response to projected global scenarios in the ecological, economic, and social dimensions. Although many studies suggest more favorable growing conditions for Canada due to rising temperature and CO₂ concentration, the agricultural sector will likely face challenges of water scarcity and water and land quality degradation, compounded by uncertainty concerning technological and socio-economic evolution at various temporal and spatial scales. To help inform agricultural policy development and investment decisions, integrated assessments from a broad set of scenarios are needed. Our methodology is able to integrate stakeholder/expert knowledge, empirical and process-based model algorithms using remote-sensing and national agri-environmental datasets. We showcase this tool by assessing potential risks and impacts in relation to land suitability and nitrogen loading of water for two primary agricultural regions of Canadian (Western Prairies and Southern Ontario).